Here is an excerpt of a email sent to me by Dr. Bruno Marchal (and he’s not joking):

My current opinion is that the singularity is behind us. The deep discovery is the discovery of the Universal Machine, alias the computer, but we have our nose so close on it that we don’t really realize what is happening. From this, by adding more and more competence to the universal machine, we put it away from its initial “natural” intelligence. I even believe that the greek theologians were in advance, conceptually, on what intelligence is. Intelligence is confused with competence today. It is correct that competence needs intelligence to develop, but competence cannot be universal and it makes the intelligence fading away: it has a negative feedback on intelligence.

So my opinion is that the singularity has already occurred, and, since a longer time, we have abandon the conceptual tools to really appreciate that recent revolution. We are somehow already less smarter than the universal machine, when it is not yet programmed.

Software is damn hard. You can’t write software to do something unless you understand it very, very well; programming is basically the art of figuring out what you want so precisely that even a machine can do it. We don’t understand intelligence, and if the history of AI research is any guide, we probably won’t understand it for many years to come.

(Something other than AGI could certainly cause a less awe-inspiring Singularity, with a second, AGI-fueled, Singularity to follow afterward. I like to joke that the Singularity occurred in 1876, when Thomas Edison invented the industrial research laboratory.)

What proportion of the trans-humanism community would agree with your assessment of the timing of the Singularity vs. total catastrophe? Are the active writers on the fringe?

I do expect it to occur within 500 years, barring such disasters as supervolcanoes, ecological collapse, or large scale nuclear war.

I also expect that, whatever Eliezer accomplishes in his own lifetime will probably end up being as important as, well, any other advance made by a single person in the field of computing since 1970.

To suggest cryonics to a group you describe as needing a few month’s income, but not so many singularitarians even have that seems unrealistic. I priced cryonics, and I could not afford it myself, without making some sacrifices, and I am one with far more assets than a “few month’s income”.

Concerning savings, you suggest: More educated people have an even worse situation. It may seem so, but a quick Google refutes this, especially in this large study, Savings and education, but also in these: stats on asset accumulation,
The role of higher education to economic development, and
tightwad or spendthrift.

While retirement plans in general may be a “rational” (but hardly well-chosen) investment for those who plan early withdrawal, Singularitarians as a group are frequently citing shortages of operating capital, so it’s not “very rational” to divert money that could be used for reaching one’s goals to an activity that one believes will never become necessary.

Buying 30-year bonds because “they are worth something now” is reminiscent of the commercial in which the man buys a painting at auction, and then immediately puts it up for resale at the same auction: it makes no sense. The question of “30-year bonds” means “are you concerned that you will need money 30 years from now?”, as I’m sure you knew.

# Are you enrolled in a financial retirement plan, assuming you need 30 years of service to qualify?

This can be rational even with early with draw fees if you do the tax math.

# Are you saving any money for the future, or are you spending as you go, enjoying life to the fullest?

Probably best to spend anything beyond a safety margin for immediate economic dislocation of a few month’s income, but not so many singularitarians even have that. The median savings for a 40 year old are negative. More educated people have an even worse situation.

# Are you planning to educate your children with the goal of them having a career?

“HELL NO!”, and one that means something from someone who does plan to have children.

# Would you buy 30-year bonds at the right price?

HELL YEAH! Bonds are worth something now. You don’t have to hold them till maturity.